Reversal on the second, as the primary will increase, because the chance of a default on June 1 will increase.
Determine 1: 1 month treasury invoice unfold – fed funds (blue) and three month treasury invoice unfold – 1 month (tan), each in %. Supply: Treasury and Fed through FRED, and writer’s calculations.
I interpret the rise within the Fed funds unfold in 1 month as a sign of the chance related to default.
For CDS spreads, see this text.