With February industrial manufacturing (0% m/m vs +0.2% Bloomberg consensus), we’ve got the next image of key indicators tracked by the NBER BCDC, plus month-to-month GDP from S&P Market Intelligence.
Determine 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (darkish blue), 3/17 Bloomberg consensus (blue+), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (purple), private revenue excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (inexperienced), manufacturing gross sales and commerce in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (gentle blue) and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 Supply: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2022Q4 2nd launch through FRED, S&P Global/IHS Markit (née Macroeconomic Advisers) (press launch dated 03/01/2023) and calculations by the writer.
Weekly financial indicators (Lewis-Mertens-Inventory) for knowledge obtainable by way of March 11 level to 0.96% year-on-year progress. GDPNow as of yesterday, factors to first-quarter progress of three.2% q/q SAAR, whereas S&P Market Intelligence/previously IHS Markit raised its trailing estimate to 0.6% (q/q SAAR), versus -0.5% a month in the past.