Listed below are a number of 2023 Q1 GDP nowcasts, in comparison with the January WSJ common forecast and the January 31 IMF WEO projection.
Determine 1: GDP (daring black), GDPNow (purple sq.), IHS Markit/S&P World (tan triangle), Goldman Sachs (gentle inexperienced line), WSJ January common forecast (inexperienced line), IMF WEO projection (triangles sky blue). Supply: Advance BEA 2022T4, Atlanta FedIHS-Markit/S&P World, Goldman Sachs, January WSJ survey, IMF WEO replace and writer’s calculations.
These estimates now incorporate the newest commerce knowledge out there (i.e. for December).
Curiously, there’s fairly a large unfold within the nowcast/monitoring estimates for Q1 progress, starting from 0.8% SAAR (GS) to three.1% (IHS Markit), with GDPNow at 2.1%. IHS Markit’s baseline is for a gentle recession beginning in Q1 and a restoration in Q3 (so I am guessing they’re saying peak in Q1, trough in Q3). Deutsche Financial institution’s baseline is a gentle recession within the 2nd half of 2023, arguing that sturdy job progress argues towards an impending recession. Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs yesterday indicated a 25% chance of a recession (towards consensus round 65%) over the following 12 months.