Forecasters increase GDP and employment projections

THE Survey of Professional Forecasters February Survey got here out on Friday. The median outlook has improved considerably since early January.

Determine 1: GDP as reported (daring black), Survey of Skilled Forecasters median February 2023 (crimson), November 2022 (gentle inexperienced), WSJ median January 2023 (teal), FT-IGM median (tan sq.) and IMF January 2023 WEO projection (sky blue triangle), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. All forecast ranges primarily based on progress charges and GDP degree obtainable on the time of the forecast, besides SPF. Supply: BEA (advance 2022T4), Philadelphia Fed SPF (various)WSJ (January), FT-IGM (December), IMF WEO (January 2023 update)and the creator’s calculations.

Notice that the GDP trajectory within the February SPF forecast is elevated as a result of 4Q 2022 GDP launch (which was stronger than anticipated) And projected sooner progress in comparison with that noticed within the WSJ January survey (in my expertise, when the SPF and WSJ surveys had been reported in the identical month, they normally seemed very comparable; the WSJ survey now comes out on a one-month schedule off the mid-quarter schedule SPF).

The likelihood of a damaging quarter of GDP progress (q/q) has decreased because the November 2022 survey, with the best likelihood related to 2023Q3 (beforehand it was 2023Q2).

Supply: Philadelphia Fed (February 2023).

The SPF gives an image of the year-over-year progress distribution for 2023 (observe that in Determine 1, the median quarter-over-quarter SPF progress implies a damaging one-quarter progress charge in Q3 2023).

Supply: Philadelphia Fed (February 2023).

Job progress has additionally been revised upwards, though the forecast doesn’t seem to replicate the benchmark revisions that pushed December 2022 NFP employment by over 800,000 (see dialogue right here).

Determine 2: Non-agricultural payroll employment from the January 2023 launch (revised benchmark) (darkish blue), the December 2022 launch (sky blue), the February 2023 Survey of Skilled Forecasters (darkish crimson) and the November 2022 survey (pink), all in hundreds, Supply: BLS through FRED, and Philadelphia Fed (numerous).

The median forecast exhibits near-zero Q2 2023 NFP job progress, in comparison with -14,500/month in This autumn 2023, within the November survey. In keeping with this measure, no recession happens in 2023 (recalling that the NBER offers a foremost weight to employment and private revenue excluding present transfers, see right here).

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By moh

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