THE Survey of Professional Forecasters February Survey got here out on Friday. The median outlook has improved considerably since early January.
Determine 1: GDP as reported (daring black), Survey of Skilled Forecasters median February 2023 (pink), November 2022 (gentle inexperienced), WSJ median January 2023 (teal), FT-IGM median (beige sq.) and IMF January 2023 WEO projection (sky blue triangle), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. All forecast ranges primarily based on progress charges and GDP stage out there on the time of the forecast, besides SPF. Supply: BEA (advance 2022T4), Philadelphia Fed SPF (various)WSJ (January), FT-IGM (December), IMF WEO (January 2023 update)and the creator’s calculations.
Be aware that the GDP trajectory within the February SPF forecast is elevated because of the 4Q 2022 GDP launch (which was stronger than anticipated) And projected sooner progress in comparison with that noticed within the WSJ January survey (in my expertise, when the SPF and WSJ surveys have been reported in the identical month, they normally regarded very related; the WSJ survey is now revealed on a one-month schedule off the center schedule of the SPF quarter).
The likelihood of a detrimental quarter of GDP progress (q/q) has decreased for the reason that November 2022 survey, with the best likelihood related to 2023Q3 (beforehand it was 2023Q2).
Supply: Philadelphia Fed (February 2023).
The SPF offers an image of the year-over-year progress distribution for 2023 (notice that in Determine 1, the median quarter-over-quarter SPF progress implies a detrimental one-quarter progress fee in Q3 2023).
Supply: Philadelphia Fed (February 2023).
Job progress has additionally been revised up, though the forecast doesn’t seem to replicate the benchmark revisions that pushed December 2022 NFP employment by over 800,000 (see dialogue right here).
Determine 2: Non-agricultural payroll employment from the January 2023 launch (revised benchmark) (darkish blue), the December 2022 launch (sky blue), the February 2023 Survey of Skilled Forecasters (darkish pink) and the November 2022 survey (pink), all in 1000’s, Supply: BLS through FRED, and Philadelphia Fed (varied).
The median forecast reveals near-zero Q2 2023 NFP job progress, in comparison with -14,500/month in This autumn 2023, within the November survey. In response to this measure, no recession happens in 2023 (recalling that the NBER offers a fundamental weight to employment and private earnings excluding present transfers, see right here).
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