Core CPI M/M inflation stunned on the upside (0.5 ppt vs. 0.4 ppt Bloomberg consensus) whereas m/m inflation was consensus. The trajectory of fed funds as indicated by futures contracts has barely budged.
Determine 1: Efficient Fed Funds (black), implied CME futures at 03/13 12:20CT (purple sq.), 03/10 (pink sq.), 03/14 1:20CT. Supply: GCE Fedwatchconsulted on 03/13, 03/14.
It is fairly onerous to see the rise, nevertheless it’s there; for the assembly on Could 3, the implied fee went from 4.936% to 4.940%.
Right here is the image of the month-over-month inflation measures, annualized: headline, core, core-out-of-shelter, trimmed imply and median.
Determine 2: Annualized month-over-month headline CPI inflation (black), core (tan), shelter-free core (sky blue), CPI inflation lower 16% (inexperienced), median CPI (purple) , all in decimal type (i.e., 0.05 means 5%). Supply: BLS, BEA, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed by way of FREDb, Pawel Skrzypczynskiand the writer’s calculations.
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