With the January 2023 launch Job situation statement incorporating the benchmark revisions, now we have the next image of the enterprise cycle indicators tracked by the NBER’s Enterprise Cycle Relationship Committee, together with the IHS Markit/SP International Month-to-month GDP (launched Wednesday):
Determine 1: Non-agricultural wage employment, NFP (darkish blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (crimson), private revenue excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (inexperienced), manufacturing and business gross sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (gentle blue) and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all logarithmic normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 Supply: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, through FRED, IHS Markit (born Macroeconomic Advisers) (press launch of 02/01/2023) and calculations by the creator.
Whereas one needs to be cautious (as all the time, however particularly when new demographic controls are included) with the family survey employment collection (see this publish), I believe it is onerous to say that the he financial system marked a decisive slowdown in December/January.