within the median of the Survey of Skilled Forecasters, however some nonetheless take into account it possible). Right here is an fascinating image of latest survey of professional forecasters And GDPNow.
Determine 1: GDP (daring black), median from the Might survey {of professional} forecasters (blue), median SPF from February (tan), GDPNow from Might 17 (sky blue) and potential GDP (gray). Supply: BEA 2023Q1 advance, CBO (February 2023), Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed and writer’s calculations.
The median response signifies no decline in progress by way of This autumn 2023. Alternatively, progress is weak – lower than 1% in Q2 (q/q SAAR), round half a ppt in Q3 and nearly no progress in This autumn. The decline is thus moved from Q3 to This autumn. (In the event you have a look at the November survey, median progress was primarily zero within the first quarter.)
This latter perspective contrasts with Torsten Slok’s narrative of consensus, which he describes as a “arduous touchdown”.
Supply: T. Slok, Might 16, 2023. (not on-line).
This implies to me that completely different teams of economists convey completely different views on the outlook (timing may matter – most likely just a few weeks distinction right here).
By the best way, I averted the time period “recession” as a result of adverse GDP progress isn’t essentially equal to a recession.
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