Month-to-month PCE inflation was 0.2% under consensus (core 0.1% under).
Determine 1: Month-to-month annualized PCE inflation (blue), base PCE (tan), lowered PCE (pink) and immediate PCE (T=12, a=4) (inexperienced). The NBER has outlined peak-to-trough recession dates as shaded. Supply: BEA, Dallas Fed through FRED, NBER and writer’s calculations.
PCE inflation lowered instantaneously and annualized to 4%; core at 3.7%.