The FY24 price range was launched right now. Provided that the forecast was locked in late November and the macroeconomic outlook had modified a lot, the administration felt compelled so as to add a “Update on the administration’s economic assumptions”. Listed below are the forecasts (primarily based on Desk S-9 of the Budget).
Determine 1: GDP as reported (black), Administration forecast (sky blue squares), CBO projection (brown), Skilled Forecasters Survey median (purple), GDPNow (3/8) (mild inexperienced triangle) . The NBER has outlined peak-to-trough recession dates as shaded. Supply: BEA 2022Q4 2nd launch, FY 2024 Funds, Desk S-9, CBO, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, NBER and creator’s calculations.
The Troika forecast (OMB-CEA-Treasury) is sort of much like the CBO projection finalized in January, and barely much less optimistic than the median from the February survey {of professional} forecasters (for the top of 2023).
Desk S-9 is reproduced under:
