The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance and Federal Debt Held by the Public: Time Series

As a share of potential GDP (Might 2022 CBO estimates):

Determine 1: Cyclically-adjusted federal price range stability (blue, left scale) and federal debt held by the general public (tan, proper scale), as a proportion of potential GDP. The NBER has outlined peak-to-trough recession dates as shaded. Supply: CBO, NBER and writer’s calculations.

Be aware that the decline within the cyclically-adjusted fiscal stability (previously, automated stabilizer-adjusted fiscal stability) declined through the Trump years, even earlier than the pandemic. Debt held by the general public has additionally elevated. Because the first quarter of 2021, the debt-to-potential GDP ratio has been pretty steady.

(Why use the cyclically-adjusted price range stability. As a result of the price range stability is an endogenous variable. Why use potential GDP? As a result of GDP is an endogenous variable.)

This entry was posted on by Menzie Chinn.

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