Was job growth in the second quarter much slower than the ETUC estimate?

Possibly. From Englander/Hewin to Normal Constitution (closed):

The BD adjustment of Q3-2022 added 294,000 NFP jobs. This appears a bit of excessive to us, because the QCEW had not proven as a lot web job positive factors within the third quarter from openings much less closings aside from in 2020 in the course of the preliminary COVID restoration. Moreover, whole personal sector job positive factors in Q3-2022 have been 232,000 NSA, so the BD adjustment accounted for greater than 100% of personal sector NFP job positive factors. We observe that over H2-2022 as an entire, the BD adjustment represents 47% of the rise in SFN employment within the personal sector. In response to QCEW information, this could be an unusually excessive share. We can not rule out that the H2 NFP information is right, however we imagine that it’s – almost definitely – considerably overstated. This might imply an honest downward revision to employment ranges when the benchmark revisions are carried out in early 2024.

As famous by different observers, together with these on the Philadelphia Fed and those that have given substantial weight to the family survey, there seems to be proof that the CES estimate of the NFP is in error. Nonetheless, it’s not sure that each one different estimates level to a slowdown within the second quarter.

Determine 1: Non-public Non-Farm Payroll Employment from CES January 2023 launch incorporating Benchmark Revisions (blue), ADP (sky blue), QCEW Non-public Coated Employees, seasonally adjusted utilizing X-13 Census-turned-diary (pink), Philadelphia Fed preliminary benchmark minus reported authorities employment (tan squares), all in 1000’s, sa. Supply: BLS (numerous) and ADP through FRED, BLS QCEW, Philadelphia Fed through FRED and writer’s calculations.

Whereas the QCEW sequence and the Philadelphia Fed’s preliminary benchmark via September present a slowdown within the second quarter, the ADP (which relies on a totally completely different information set and never a survey) exhibits no slowdown. . For the reason that QCEW is a census and never a survey, it typically has higher precision; nevertheless, it is usually topic to revisions as new information arrives. So we’ll see on February 22.

In any case, even when it have been a downturn, I do not suppose it might depend as a recession beneath the NBER definition.

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By moh

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