Listed here are some weekly indicators for the true financial system.
Determine 1: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Situations Index for the US plus 2% development (inexperienced). Supply: New York Fed through Fred, OECD, WECIconsulted on 30/03, and calculations by the creator.
The Weekly Tracker continues to learn robust progress at 2.84%, for the week ending 3/25, outpacing the WEI (1.47%) and WECI+2% (1.97%). The WEI studying for the week ending 3/25 of 1.47% will be interpreted as quarterly progress of 1.47% if the studying of 1.47% had been to persist for a whole quarter. Baumeister et al. a studying of -0.03% is interpreted as a progress fee of -0.03% above the long-term development progress fee. Common US GDP progress over the interval 2000-19 is about 2%, implying a progress fee of 1.97% for the yr ending 3/25. The OECD’s weekly studying of two.84% will be interpreted as an annual progress fee of two.84% for the yr ending 3/25.
Recall that the WEI depends on correlations in ten collection obtainable on the weekly frequency (e.g. unemployment claims, gas gross sales, retail gross sales), whereas the WECI depends on a mixed-frequency dynamic issue mannequin . The Weekly Tracker – at 2.84% – is a “huge information” strategy that makes use of Google Developments and machine studying to trace GDP. As such, it isn’t primarily based on precise financial indices per se.
The WEI studying, if utilized to Q1, implies 2.37% (q/q SAAR). GDPNow as of three/24 was 3.2% (q/q SAAR), whereas thus far the monitoring of S&P Market Perception (born Macro Advisers/IHS Markit) is at 1% q/q and the monitoring of Goldman Sachs is at 2.9% (as of Tuesday).
For the implications of GDPNow nowcast and the IGM median, see this text.
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