Lewis-Mertens-Inventory (NY Fed) Weekly Financial Indicators and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker weekly indicators via 2/4/2023, launched at this time, relative to month-to-month GDP .
Determine 1: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Situations Index for US plus 2% pattern (inexperienced) and IHS Markit month-to-month GDP (blue bars). Supply: New York Fed by way of Fred, OECD, WECI, IHS Markit/S&P Globaland the creator’s calculations.
There was a powerful rebound within the Weekly Tracker, which had turned damaging for the week ending 11/26, now outpacing the WEI (1.0%) and WECI +2% (2.2%). The WEI studying for the week ending 2/4 of 1.0% may be interpreted as quarterly progress of 1.0% if the 1.0% studying had been to persist for a whole quarter. Baumeister et al. a studying of 0.16% is interpreted as a progress charge 0.16% above the long-term pattern progress charge. Common US GDP progress over the interval 2000-19 is about 2%, implying a progress charge of two.16% for the yr ending 2/4. The OECD Weekly Tracker studying of three.4% is interpretable as an annual progress charge of three.4% for the yr ending 1/14. The 95% vary for US weekly monitoring is [1.9%, 4.9%].