Listed here are some weekly indicators for the true financial system. Bloomberg notes that GDPNow (3/16) mixed with the SEP median of a 0.4% progress fee for 2023 implies 3 quarters of detrimental GDP progress from Q2. The newest knowledge beneath is for the top of the primary quarter.
Determine 1: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index for the US plus 2% pattern (inexperienced). Supply: New York Fed through Fred, OECD, WECIand the writer’s calculations.
The Weekly Tracker continues to learn sturdy progress, for the week ending 3/18, outpacing the WEI (1.1%) and WECI +2% (1.8%). The WEI studying for the week ending 3/18 of 1.1% might be interpreted as quarterly progress of 1.1% if the 1.1% studying have been to persist for a whole quarter. Baumeister et al. a studying of -0.02% is interpreted as a progress fee of -0.02% above the long-term pattern progress fee. Common US GDP progress over the interval 2000-19 is about 2%, implying a progress fee of 1.8% for the yr ending 3/18. The two.4% studying from the OECD Weekly Tracker might be interpreted as an annual progress fee of two.4% for the yr ending 3/18.
Recall that the WEI depends on correlations in ten collection obtainable on the weekly frequency (e.g. unemployment claims, gasoline gross sales, retail gross sales), whereas the WECI depends on a mixed-frequency dynamic issue mannequin . The Weekly Tracker – at 2.4% – is a “huge knowledge” strategy that makes use of Google Developments and machine studying to trace GDP. As such, it isn’t based mostly on precise financial indices per se.
Pawel Skrzypczynski does the work on what the calculation of GDPNow plus the median SEP entails:
Supply: Pawel Skrzypczynski.