THE Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast in February simply got here out yesterday. The identical was true of the January 2023 estimates for employment in Wisconsin (incorporating annual benchmark revisions). What does the outlook appear like, given the info revisions? Pretty good within the quick time period. Over the following 12 months – reflecting the forecast for the Nation – not as nice, with a modest decline in employment.
Determine 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment from January 2023 launch (blue), from December 2022 launch (tan), DoR WI Financial Outlook Forecast from February 2023 (sky blue squares), from of November 2022 (gentle beige squares), all in 1000’s, its BLS, DWD, Wisconsin Financial Outlook Forecast (February 2023, November 2022).
The upward revision to Wisconsin’s employment forecast is sort of actually primarily related to the upward revision to the nationwide employment degree forecast.
In distinction, the GDP forecast degree has been lowered, though the define is now not for a noticeable slowdown (mirroring the S&P World forecast on the nationwide degree).
Image 2: Wisconsin GDP (blue), DoR WI financial outlook forecast from February 2023 (gentle blue squares), from November 2022 (gentle beige squares), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. Supply: BEA, DWD, Wisconsin Financial Outlook Forecast (February 2023, November 2022).
The financial outlook forecasts don’t present particulars on q/q actions in actual GDP. I exploit the connection of first log variations from Q1 2021 to Q3 2022 between US GDP and WI GDP to venture WI GDP, assuming the S&P World Market Intelligence forecast is 3/8. (A one share level change in US GDP is related to a 0.85 share level change in Wisconsin GDP, with an adjusted R2 of 0.78, DW=1.28.)
Determine 3: US GDP (black), S&P World Market Intelligence forecast of three/8 (chartreuse), Wisconsin GDP (blue), DoR WI Financial Outlook forecast for February 2023 (sky blue squares) and implicit forecast utilizing S&P World forecasts (pink) , all in logs 2021Q4=0. Supply: BEA, S&P World Market Intelligence (08/03/2023), Wisconsin Financial Outlook Forecast (February 2023).
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